Moduloft:The Affordable Housing Manufacturer Introduction to Our Series on understanding The Affordable Homes Equation.
Moduloft is committed to the Entry Level budget home ownership Market. Delivering affordable Homes and the means to Finance them literally without costing the earth. Moduloft is Green by design, and Affordable by design , we are experts in materials passports, Energy based economics and Place-making. We do have questions though regarding the Agenda 2030 sustainable development goals and whether financial products are being developed for our Customer price point. This coming week we will publish a series of discussion papers surrounding the question. Is 21st Century Britain, in 2021, going to be a Home Owning democracy or a Rent seeking Banana Republic?
Moduloft a Manufacturing and Customer Financing solution to enabling owner occupation for the Reluctant 10 per-centers. “our product is aimed at what we call the reluctant 10 per-centers and what i mean by that is if you envisage the property ladder as 100 rungs, since 2009 home ownership has fallen from 75% of occupation to 65% so there were 25% of people in the rental sector across all types of rental property in 2009 now in 2020there are 35 percent and it occurred to me that those 10%of people, that 10 rungs of the property ladderwould rather buy than rent and so what we've addressed the reasons why they haven't been buying and have been renting instead”
Roger Lewis , CEO Moduloft
#Moduloft The Concept. #Cop26 Draft No.1 Presentation and discussion #BuildBackBetter #LevellingUp https://www.yumpu.com/s/YVK6NcySvUb3lAfd
Moduloft Finance Affordable Finance A Framework of Understanding Moduloft Finance Affordable Finance A Framework of Understanding
#Moduloft The Concept. #Cop26 Draft No.2 notes Presentation and discussion #BuildBackBetter #LevellingUp
Housing Market Fundamentals including Debt. From Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance to The Covid19 Debt Bomb.#COP26 Moduloft Primer.
Primer INDEXED UNITS OF ACCOUNT: THEORY AND ASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE, Property Values and Indexation
#COP26 Presentation Embodied Energy, Embodied Carbon Building Information Modelling (BIM) Technical Framework Sourcebook
Help to Buy and other Schemes.
Are we Looking for and have we been looking for solutions?
" In this response, it is assumed The Committee is seeking to further the public interest, even where this may conflict with the private interests which usually dominate the analysis and debate. This will pose a major challenge to those who have learned their analysis exclusively through channels devoted to promoting private interests, and must “unlearn” erroneous but pervasive assumptions and principles."
the distinction between Bank, Building society and Other lending in all the stats is key, followed up by the Distinction between, Mortgage for New or Existing homes as 1st Mortgages,Mortgages for Remortgages and finally mortgages for Letting investments. The other very important distinction is Mortgage Funds secured in the Money Markets and Mortgages originated as Bank credit. Northern Rock of course famously became a casualty of the former and The Market itself is in my opinion enslaved to the latter. One further Stratification category would be the Element of Value attributable to Site or Land Value. All of my recent researches point to Land Value Tax, and the Late Dr Adrian Wrigley’s work. This paragraph is sandwiched between Two Quotes from Adrian's work.
"Evidence of a real housing “shortage” is absent. A real shortage would show up as overcrowding nationwide. People would be walking the streets in the hope of finding a room. Room prices would be high, and there would be no empty houses.We have a crisis of affordability and allocation. People are borrowing eight times their income to get on the housing ladder yet there are 700,000 derelict houses, 500,000 second homes, and hundreds of thousands of pensioners’ homes with at least three bedrooms spare. The overheated Spanish housing market shows that rapid building programmes do not cure price bubbles".
For an Affordable Product to work the appropriate supply of newly created credit needs to be accessible for new first time buyers. It is the successive failure to solve or even address this piece of the puzzle that has led to the Market as we see it today. By some estimations ( Werner et al) the cause of the Gyrations we call the property cycle, is the availability of Credit, Bankers and Policy makers/regulators are to blame.
At this point separating the Flows of Credit into the Housing Market is a non trivial task As one has to Factor in The Production Side of the equation; House builders/Developers etc. with financing of Land Acquisition, Planning and Construction. Understanding these flows and incorporating them into a model to see how the Split between; Newly created Credit and Institutional Equity Funding expressed as Developer Payments, Insurance Company Liability cover ,and Other risk Capital from the Players in the Model Transaction create a complex dynamic system where much of the Devil is found in the detail. Simple indices, median prices and Stylized Facts all contribute to the confusion and ultimately have succeeded in throwing the Baby out with the bathwater.
I think if workable solutions have or can be developed then any workable solutions should all satisfy one proviso.
• Higher LTV lending and also Lending at Higher Joint income Multiples is a necessary combination if First Time buyers are to see sufficient credit allocation.
The Macro Prudential framework as it currently exists , will I think frustrate even prudent and attractive Mortgage products for First Time buyers. My Latest Blog touches on the Problem. Per Kurowski who I quote in the Blog is an ex director of the World Bank and If the Good Ship Sonia is to set sail, we could do a lot worse than pay heed to Pers message which he has oft repeated in the letters section of the FT.
“With lower bank capital requirements for residential mortgages than for loans to the entrepreneurs or SMEs, those who can create the jobs needed in order to service utilities and mortgages, you will not have a functional economy, and houses have morphed from being affordable homes into being the main risky-investment of way too many families.”
The Stylized Facts of the Macro Prudential Literature , succeeds in doing what Stylized Facts do. That is The decoupling of The Entry levels of the Market from Fundamentals has gone un-diagnosed. I am not convinced that this is not condoned by implicit policy, where being seen to be trying to do something is enough, Actually doing something is not the standard of success, a triumph of Stylized Facts over Substance, Perhaps? https://notthegrubstreetjournal.com/2020/12/18/a-ship-in-harbor-is-safe-but-that-is-not-what-ships-are-for-setting-sail-on-the-good-ship-sonia-perkurowski/ “A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for”,. @PerKurowski Tackling the UK housing crisis: is supply the answer?
5.” The collapse in home ownership was mainly due to withdrawal of mortgage finance from FTBs, which suggests policymakers face a trade-off. This paper has argued that, while high house prices affect home ownership, the dominant driver of its recent collapse was a sudden stop on mortgage lending to FTBs. And in keeping with that explanation, the recent return to a more normal pace of FTB lending has seen the home ownership rate stabilise and perhaps begin to recover". Ian Mulheirn August 2019 The new focus of RLD "placemaking" is as described in the recent article in Property Week. More Specifically. Over the past 25 years a Gap has opened in the market between what is affordable and what is built to address the shortage of Affordable Residential property. The Definition of help to buy in london is a range up to 600k. Development has gone high rise and targeted at the Buy to rent markets often specifically for investors in the Far East. Or Buy to Let landlords in the UK. S 106 provision of Affordable Social Housing has not addressed the dynamics of a housing market where the children of families can remain within communities. This problem has been known about with attempts to address it in Rural areas where Holiday home and second home buyers price out Villagers. In Urban Centres Commutes have got longer and more expensive. This recent "Action on Empty homes" report nails the problem in my opinion. Action on Empty Homes campaigns for more empty homes to be brought into use for people in housing need. Our aims are to: ■ Raise awareness of the waste of long-term empty homes. ■ Campaign for changes to national policy. ■ Support loca o: ■ Raise awareness of the waste of long-term empty homes. ■ Campaign for changes to national policy. ■ Support local communities in transforming their neighbourhoods. ■ Provide advice for those seeking to bring empty homes back into use. ■ Research and develop ideas for bringing long-term empty homes back into use for those in housing need. https://www.actiononemptyhomes.org/Handlers/Download.ashx?IDMF=24ace1b7-b428-4fee-8dcc-6a7638f32eaa If people make places and communities ( I think that they do), then the provision of the basic spaces for communities to "Make their own" over time is the essence of our new concept. Our Budget Live Work Thrive "Be the event" comprehensive development approach of Placemaking Basics by for and of the people and their community. In Urban contexts and in Suburban or rural contexts the same basic principles apply.