Baileys Bust, No Quarter Given, On the 1/4 Point Hike March 23rd 2023. UK Resi Market Survey #RICS, Where did all that wealth come from? Where is it headed And what should we do about it?

Baileys Bust, No Quarter Given, On the 1/4 Point Hike March 23rd 2023. UK Resi Market Survey #RICS, Where did all that wealth come from? Where is it headed  And what should we do about it?

https://t.co/OmZIjWKIWN

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

Residential_Market_Survey.pdf Click cover above for PDF.

Baileys Bust, No Quarter Given, On the 1/4 Point Hike March 23rd 2023. UK Resi Market Survey #RICS

Why the Rate rises by the Fed on Wednesday and the Bank of England yesterday? they will not assist either new aspiring homeowners, both first time buyers and families wishing to Buy or rent secure homes. The raising of the Price of Mortgages will also destroy or enable a continuing transfer of Material wealth into the hands of those who Own debt professionally over those who earn a living through working in the "Real Main Street Economy"
Where did all that wealth come from? Where is it headed  And what should we do about it?
​DECEMBER 26, 2022.
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Where did all that wealth come from?<br>And what should we do about it? https://t.co/hxSSl70co2 via @ThemesDNA

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

Starting assumptions.
Credit Creation and Taxation are intimately linked and it is  to the Private creators of debt where the lions share of the seniorage from the same accrues , The purpose of the Policy decision to raise rates by a further quarter point when the residential and construction markets are cratering can not be explained by the "Economics Hadith" of conventional wisdom, as trotted out by the OBR, Treasury, or Bank of England. 

CUI BONO? the linguistics of rapacious price gouging in the GloboCap new normal.

Inflation! The Battle Between Creditors and WorkersMARCH 23, 2023 by BLAIR FIX
​economicsfromthetopdown.com/2023/03/23/inflation-the-battle-between-creditors-and-workers/X
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​I SEE YOUR PRICE HIKE, AND I RAISE MY RETURN ON CAPITALWhen it comes to raising prices, capitalists play the same game as workers. The main difference is that capitalists don’t receive a ‘wage’; they receive a ‘return on investment’.
Like the various flavors of labor income (wages, salaries, commission, etc.), there are different flavors of capitalist investment. The two most important are equity and debt. Each flavor comes with its own category of income. If I invest in equity, I earn ‘profit’. But if I invest in debt, I earn ‘interest’.3

When faced with inflation, these investment flavors require different strategies for preserving income. Let’s start with equity. When you buy equity, you purchase the legal command of a firm (or at least part of it). So when your competitors raise prices, you tell your firm to do the same. Profits preserved.
If you purchase debt, however, you have no formal say in the debtor’s decisions, and no right to their bolstered profits.4 Instead, your investment return is fixed. It is set at the purchase date by the rate of interest. So if you are a creditor (meaning you own debt), the obvious response to inflation is to raise the rate of interest.

Why does this battle/war distinction matter? Well, because when price wars break out, they affect the outcome of price battles. In other words, when inflation rears its head, class struggle intensifies.
On that front, political economists Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler have done pioneering research. Looking at the United States, they’ve found that during bouts of inflation, corporate profits tend to rise relative to wages. Similarly, rising prices tend to benefit the bottom lines of big corporations at the expense of small businesses.7
Taking a cue from Nitzan and Bichler, I’m going to see how inflation affects the battle between US creditors and US workers. To do that, I’ll measure the correlation between the rate of inflation and the bond-wage growth gap. If the correlation is positive, it signals that rising prices benefit creditors. But if the correlation is negative, it indicates that inflation benefits workers.
The results; I find that over the last two centuries, the bond-wage growth gap correlates negatively with the rate of inflation (�=−0.11)(r=−0.11). In other words, price wars have historically benefited US workers at the expense of creditors. That’s surprising. But what’s more interesting is that this correlation has varied wildly over time.
https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2023/03/23/inflation-the-battle-between-creditors-and-workers/

Quiggley Tragedy and Hope.
Money and Goods Are Different
”Thus, clearly, money and goods are not the same thing but are, on the contrary,
exactly opposite things. Most confusion in economic thinking arises from a failure to
recognise this fact. Goods are wealth which you have, while money is a claim on wealth which you do not have. Thus goods are an asset; money is a debt. If goods are wealth; money is not wealth, or negative wealth, or even anti-wealth. They always behave in opposite ways, just as they usually move in opposite directions. If the value of one goes up, the value of the other goes down, and in the same proportion.”
The Relationship Between Goods and Money Is Clear to Bankers
In the course of time the central fact of the developing economic system, the
relationship between goods and money, became clear, at least to bankers. This relationship, the price system, depended upon five things: the supply and the demand for goods, the supply and the demand for money, and the speed of exchange between money and goods. An increase in three of these (demand for goods, supply of money, speed of circulation) would move the prices of goods up and the value of
money down. This inflation was objectionable to bankers, although desirable to producers and merchants.On the other hand, a decrease in the same three items would be deflationary and would please bankers, worry producers and merchants, and delight consumers (who obtained more goods for less money). The other factors worked in the opposite direction, so that an increase in them (supply of goods, demand for money, and slowness of circulation or exchange) would be deflationary.”

The principles of tax policy by Dr. Adrian Wrigley (RIP)
Understanding taxation

1. Taxation is central to the interests of every citizen, business and special group. Each group has its own economic interests and perspective foremost when it analyses the economy and promotes a particular viewpoint. Politicians, economists and business people rarely promote analysis which conflicts with their group interests. Clarity and analytical integrity generally work against private interests and are usually absent.
   
   
2. In this response, it is assumed The Committee is seeking to further the public interest, even where this may conflict with the private interests which usually dominate the analysis and debate. This will pose a major challenge to those who have learned their analysis exclusively through channels devoted to promoting private interests, and must “unlearn” erroneous but pervasive assumptions and principles.

What are the economic principles of taxation?

1. Taxation is at the economic core wherever government supplies significant services such as civil and military protection of property rights, infrastructure, education or healthcare. The UK is no exception.
   
   
2. Taxation comprises three fundamental economic parts:

      a.  Creation of the medium of taxation and issue into the economy
      b.  Distribution of the medium of taxation through the economy
      c.  Collection of the medium of taxation

DECEMBER 22, 2020

The Affordable Housing Manufacturer Introduction to Our Series on understanding The Affordable Homes Equation.

​Help to Buy and other Schemes.
Are we Looking for and have we been looking for solutions?
 In this response, it is assumed The Committee is seeking to further the public interest, even where this may conflict with the private interests which usually dominate the analysis and debate. This will pose a major challenge to those who have learned their analysis exclusively through channels devoted to promoting private interests, and must “unlearn” erroneous but pervasive assumptions and principles.
the distinction between Bank, Building society and Other lending in all the stats is key, followed up by the Distinction between, Mortgage for New or Existing homes as 1st Mortgages,Mortgages for Remortgages and finally mortgages for Letting investments. The other very important distinction is Mortgage Funds secured in the Money Markets and Mortgages originated as Bank credit. Northern Rock of course famously became a casualty of the former and The Market itself is in my opinion enslaved to the latter. One further Stratification category would be the Element of Value attributable to Site or Land Value. All of my recent researches point to Land Value Tax, and the Late Dr Adrian Wrigley’s work. This paragraph is sandwiched between Two Quotes from Adrian’s work.
Evidence of a real housing “shortage” is absent. A real shortage would show up as overcrowding nationwide. People would be walking the streets in the hope of finding a room. Room prices would be high, and there would be no empty houses.We have a crisis of affordability and allocation. People are borrowing eight times their income to get on the housing ladder yet there are 700,000 derelict houses, 500,000 second homes, and hundreds of thousands of pensioners’ homes with at least three bedrooms spare. The overheated Spanish housing market shows that rapid building programmes do not cure price bubbles.
For an Affordable Product to work the appropriate supply of newly created credit needs to be accessible for new first time buyers. It is the successive failure to solve or even address this piece of the puzzle that has led to the Market as we see it today. By some estimations ( Werner et al) the cause of the Gyrations we call the property cycle, is the availability of Credit, Bankers and Policy makers/regulators are to blame.
At this point separating the Flows of Credit into the Housing Market is a non trivial task As one has to Factor in The Production Side of the equation; House builders/Developers etc. with financing of Land Acquisition, Planning and Construction.
Understanding these flows and incorporating them into a model to see how the Split between; Newly created Credit and Institutional Equity Funding expressed as Developer Payments, Insurance Company Liability cover , and Other risk Capital from the Players in the Model Transaction
create a complex dynamic system where much of the Devil is found in the detail. Simple indices, median prices and Stylized Facts all contribute to the confusion and ultimately have succeeded in throwing the Baby out with the bathwater.
I think if workable solutions have or can be developed then any workable solutions should all satisfy one proviso.
• Higher LTV lending and also Lending at Higher Joint income Multiples is a necessary combination if First Time buyers are to see sufficient credit allocation.
The Macro Prudential framework as it currently exists , will I think frustrate even prudent and attractive Mortgage products for First Time buyers. My Latest Blog touches on the Problem. Per Kurowski who I quote in the Blog is an ex director of the World Bank and If the Good Ship Sonia is to set sail, we could do a lot worse than pay heed to Pers message which he has oft repeated in the letters section of the FT.
“With lower bank capital requirements for residential mortgages than for loans to the entrepreneurs or SMEs, those who can create the jobs needed in order to service utilities and mortgages, you will not have a functional economy, and houses have morphed from being affordable homes into being the main risky-investment of way too many families.”
The Stylized Facts of the Macro Prudential Literature , succeeds in doing what Stylized Facts do. That is The decoupling of The Entry levels of the Market from Fundamentals has gone un-diagnosed. I am not convinced that this is not condoned by implicit policy, where being seen to be trying to do something is enough, Actually doing something is not the standard of success, a triumph of Stylized Facts over Substance, Perhaps? 
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Brexit In Reverse?  Jun 25, 2017
Soros is yesterday’s, Man. Neo-Liberalism has been found out and Soros´s brand of Financialised Capitalism and Stae Monopoly manipulation of Markets has been Exposed. The People of Britain, as well as the people of Europe, remember the Golden Age of Social Democracy and even Democratic Socialism. Neo-Liberalism having failed to deliver on its promises and having undermined British Democracy and institutions will now be set aside, as will the EU. The Eu if it reforms and goes back on Track of Social Democracy may Survive and see the power vector restored from the people to the Executive and not this top down Elite, Managerial command and control Farce.
At the heart of this, and this is something Soros, Does or rather should understand its the Magic Money Tree. The EU, Britain and the Washington Consensus have all been suffering a debt deflation post the 2008 Collapse, Heterodox economic theorists like myself, Led by Hudson, Keen, Wray, Mitchell, Mosler, Murphy Werner, Dyson, Adair Turner and Even Mervyn King, have exposed the Neo-Liberal Pump and Dump scheme for what it is, A giant Ponzi Scheme, For these fraudulent Crimes alone, The Soros´s of this world should be serving Time at the Pleasure of The various States whose coffers they have hollowed out with the assistance of a generation or two of Weak Minded, Lemonade pocketed yet Champagne Tasted Politicians and Bureaucrats.
As well as being an Idea, Democracy is a process. The Process is informed by history and the Idea and the process is independent of Oligarchs such as Mr Soros. Now there are clear divisions in the Oligarchy, and I am glad to speculate that Soros´s faction is Losing. They have lost the Intellectual Arguments, even though they have tried to corrupt our academic Institutions, They Are losing the Political Arguments even though they have tried to buy the silence of the media Outlets, They are losing the Popular arguments, as Poverty levels and health outcomes have become too obvious and so obviously the fault of the “Elites”. So for all the blaming of victims, Spin and Hopeless Senile confirmation biases wrapped up in the shell of an Octagenarian has been, we still see that the old adage is holding true. As it always does, “all political careers end in failure”. Even covert ones and Mr Soros´s is no different. I for one celebrate and rejoice for Soros´s brand of extreme neoliberal fascism has no place in a Post-Scarcity Society with Ethical standards of Compassion caring love and respect. You have done enough damage, Mr Soros, enjoy a long and healthy retirement, but you are no longer needed or wanted. You are the Weakest Link, Good Bye.
The Long Story short
Where and what is the real reason for the current policy stance by Central Banks worldwide and why would it seem that a destruction,(Transfer into the hands of the Billionaire class) of household wealth on a scale in excess as that in the GFC 1, is a price which Bailey and Powell are lining us all up to pay.
Is it that we should all be happy with owning nothing as the now infamous World Economic Forum "Misquote" would have it.
The Uberisation of everything following the Peak Everything bubble burst seems to be where we are in the midst of. 
This Paradigm Shift.
This is a paradigm shift beyond post Fordism and beyond Post almost anything imaginable from any of the Civics lessons I attended whilst going through, Primary , Secondary , Graduate and post Graduate professional Education. 
The increase in Rates as they effect the residential property market is one small aspect of this Faster and Further push, reaching into the fundamenatals of the Democracy and Free world into which I took and take an active part in. Its not a new change to an obscure part of the rule book . What is emerging is that There really has been a different set of rules For some all along.
Well not so fast! fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. #Stop the Steal

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https://t.co/K5arfHFS4V

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 14, 2023

Inflation and the English language

Inflation! The Battle Between Creditors and WorkersMARCH 23, 2023 by BLAIR FIXX


To start our journey into income redistribution, let’s talk about terminology. The word inflation … what does it describe?
To many people, ‘inflation’ refers to a decrease in the value of money. While this thinking is not wrong per se, it is needlessly abstract. We cannot measure the ‘value of money’. Instead, we measure price increases.2 Speaking of the phrase ‘price increases’, this language is also indirect. After all, prices don’t raise themselves. If prices go up, it’s because someone raised them. To bolster my profit, I raise prices.
My point here is that there are different ways to talk about the phenomenon of ‘inflation’. And paradoxically, the word ‘inflation’ is itself quite opaque. When ‘inflation’ rears its head, what’s actually going on is that groups of people compete to ‘raise prices’.
Now, if English writers cared about accuracy, you’d think that they would favor terms that are clear. And yet when it comes to price hikes, the opposite is true.
economicsfromthetopdown.com/2023/03/23/inflation-the-battle-between-creditors-and-workers/
ENDS:

1. The Promise of Fiscal MoneyAug 30, 2017
   Mr. Varafoukis makes the mistake all Economists make. Money is a variable and not good as a measure. Resources are the basis of wealth and Energy is the basis of converting resources into wealth. We face energy constraints because the Energy Return on Energy invested has fallen drastically for conventional Fossil Fuels, whilst we can generate sufficient energy we will struggle to do so at the very high EROI levels we have enjoyed for the 20th Century. Our average EROI in the coming century is unknown but wind power Solar and Hydro together with some Nuclear ( Thorium, SWR) will be probably around 10-15 ( more work needs to be done on this, Steve Keen has started to try to get his head around it, Yannis would do well to chat it through with his Australian Freind)
   The point is that Money needs to be rebased to entropic physical realities and pretending that Old Economic Thinking will have any place in the future of our Energy economy realities is magical thinking. What Mr. Varafoukis suggests is nothing more than re arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
   Mr. Varafoukis in this short piece can be given the benefit of the doubt as to his grasp of horizontalist and Verticalist niceties, ( Basil Moore, http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/08/economic-models-and-political-economy.html) (fundamentally though the whole premise of Mr. Varafoukis´s article is incorrect. Energy and Energy returned on Energy invest will be the determinant of future economic realities and the World can no longer stand by and leave the practitioners of the dismal science to play with the Trainset of Political Economy.
   http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/08/renewableseroi-why-money-doesnt-cut-it.html
   For a Basic reader on Money, Qua Money Try this
   http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2016/08/neo-liberalism-billy-no-mates-or-just.html
   Read less

Surplus Energy Economics 
“Money” YOU SAY #ARYANS I SAY #ARIANS, Inflation, Cui Bono Who Benefits? Tim Morgans Seeds Falsified? #239: Life after liberalism? Posted on September 13, 2022 THE CESSATION OF GROWTH CHANGES EVERYTHINGTim, You say and have said before many times that.
“All of these hopes miss the fundamental point, which is that ECoEs are very much higher now (above 9%) than they were in the 1970s (at or below 2%).”
Russian and Saudi Lifting costs account for a very large part of core world supply and also proved reserves for future supply, as the proved reserves are using enhanced recovery methods but not the more expensive heat-based recovery of non-conventional heavy oils. I think the simple claim that a substantial proportion of world oil production and continuing supply from those reserves are still at High ECOEs, can you prove otherwise?
Accessible data available in admittedly partial data sets, contradict the very stark claim you make that up to the 1990’s it cost 2 barrels of oil to extract 100 barrels giving a net 98 surplus energy barrels. and that now the energy cost is 9 barrels of every 100 giving 91 surplus barrels.
Adjusted lifting costs on a per-dollar basis have if anything fallen, it is also possible that for Giant fields that lifting costs have actually fallen in Energy terms.
Are your 2% and 9% figures theoretically or empirically derived and if empirically could you please provide the data source from which you derive such a bold claim?
It is also unsatisfactory not to provide adjusted figures for the different souces be they, conventional Land, off shore, deep sea and shallow and deeper conventional sources.
At this point I think it is reasonable to put the End of cheap oil in energy terms theorists to proof.
This paper tackles the question in energy terms and not assumptions drawn from monetary/price assumptions.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687841/

The Everything Bubble and the Everything Bust. Prospects for UK Housing and UK Housing Markets.
Significant sales market slowdown is confirmed by HMRC
Latest figures from HMRC reveal a drop in sales last month, as the housing market loses momentum following last year’s boom.
David Callaghan
22nd February 2023A year is a long time in Bubble World. 23rd March 2022​Trading update: which of these 3 builders is likely to cope better with the UK recession?Outlook
Recent increases in interest rates, and the removal of mortgage products from the market, has affected sales. The decline in order books is significant and ranges between 24% and 38%.
During 2022, private net sales for Persimmon averaged 0.69 per outlet per week. This fell to 0.19 during the last seven weeks of the year. The biggest reductions were observed in those sites where the government’s Help to Buy Scheme, which is now closed for new applications, was most popular.
Barratt Developments saw reservations fall to 0.30 per outlet between 10 October and 31 December 2022. Taylor Wimpey’s sales rate was 0.48 for the second half of 2022, compared to 0.85 for the previous year.
In 2023, the emphasis for Persimmon is on delivering quality returns rather than volume. As with Taylor Wimpey, no indication of expected completions for 2023 has been provided.
The directors of Barratt Developments are forecasting a range of 16,000 to 17,475 new home completions this year, depending on economic conditions.
Historically, sales rates increase in spring, so how the three builders will fare in 2023 will become clearer during the early part of the year.
We can all draw our own conclusions, if one takes the In the long run we are all dead view then a good old-fashioned 1929 swan dive off a tall building might be in order.
Whichever way one cuts it the outlook is poor on both sides of the pond and there are wider financial system obstacles pulling in a negative direction some say we have been in an everything bubble, with an everything bubble does one get the “What goes up must come down ” Everything Bust”Economic Models and Political Economy
​The Importance of Debt
A fourth reason for the failure of the New Keynesian DSGE models, linking closely with the previous, is the omission of debt and household balance sheets more generally, which are crucial for understanding consumption and macroeconomic fluctuations.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/why-central-bank-models-failed-and-how-to-repair-them.html
Further this https://www.elgaronline.com/view/journals/roke/1-4/roke.2013.04.01.xml Abstract In 1988 Basil Moore published his book Horizontalists and Verticalists: The Macroeconomics of Credit Money, which this year celebrates its 25th birthday. We discuss this book from today’s perspective, and in particular whether Moore’s main assertions have been validated or rejected by the development of central bank practice and academic monetary economics. We find that the book has impressively stood the test of time and, despite part of textbook economics still insisting on the money multiplier as an explanation for the money supply, it is not much of an exaggeration to say that we have all become ‘Horizontalists’ in the last 25 years.



​A critical overview of neoclassical political economy by Jonathan Nitzan (2020)bnarchives.yorku.ca/

The Bichler & Nitzan Archives http://www.bnarchives.net 

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FURTHER READINGS

Clark, John Bates. 1899. [1965]. The Distribution of Wealth. A Theory of Wages, Interest and Profit. New York: Augustus M. Kelley. https://tinyurl.com/y3vlkk5c

Harcourt, Geoffrey C. 1972. Some Cambridge Controversies in the Theory of Capital. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Hunt, E. K., and Mark Lautzenheiser. 2011. History of Economic Thought. A Critical Perspective. 3rd ed. Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe.

Josephson, Matthew. 1934. The Robber Barons. The Great American Capitalists. 1861-1901. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company. https://tinyurl.com/yyked3sy

Keen, Steve. 2011. Debunking Economics. The Naked Emperor Dethroned? Revised and expanded ed. London: Zed Book.

Nitzan, Jonathan, and Shimshon Bichler. 2009. Capital as Power. A Study of Order and Creorder. RIPE Series in Global Political Economy. New York and London: Routledge. http://bnarchives.yorku.ca/259/

Samuelson, Paul A., and William D. Nordhaus. 2010. Economics. 19th ed. Boston: McGraw-Hill Irwin.

Sraffa, Piero. 1926. The Law of Returns Under Competitive Conditions. The Economic Journal 36 (144, December): 535-550. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2959866?...

Sraffa, Piero. 1960. Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities. Prelude to a Critique of Economic Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

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1:31
"it is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter Heaven" . shame Peter that's class warfare

In Class Warfare, Guess Which Class Is Winning https://t.co/dpAJfJSp6q

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

​Mr. Buffett compiled a data sheet of the men and women who work in his office. He had each of them make a fraction; the numerator was how much they paid in federal income tax and in payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, and the denominator was their taxable income. The people in his office were mostly secretaries and clerks, though not all.

It turned out that Mr. Buffett, with immense income from dividends and capital gains, paid far, far less as a fraction of his income than the secretaries or the clerks or anyone else in his office. Further, in conversation it came up that Mr. Buffett doesn’t use any tax planning at all. He just pays as the Internal Revenue Code requires. “How can this be fair?” he asked of how little he pays relative to his employees. “How can this be right?”

Even though I agreed with him, I warned that whenever someone tried to raise the issue, he or she was accused of fomenting class warfare.

“There’s class warfare, all right,” Mr. Buffett said, “but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”

Likes the quote: "There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning." https://t.co/A6WET5YngO via @goodreads

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

Brino Dont Get tangoed. Reject the Brino Cool Aid. #Tellitasitis #IseesEmIcallsEm #TwoFingers2Brino @wiki_ballot #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 https://t.co/BuuxYqaGbD

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

​From Homes for Heroes to Exponential Zeroes. Neglected actors in the “Housing Crisis” Narrative#AbsorptionRate, #LastTimeBuyers,#Cash Buyers, #FiscalPolicy ( #MIRAS and #StampDuty ) and #MortgageLending by the #BankingSector. #Demography of #Immigration and#Ageing.

Neglected actors in the “Housing Crisis” Narrative#AbsorptionRate, #LastTimeBuyers,#Cash Buyers, #FiscalPolicy ( #MIRAS and #StampDuty ) and #MortgageLending by the #BankingSector. #Demography of #Immigration and#Ageing. https://t.co/iknFPRPb1E via @ThemesDNA

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

Based upon Transactions volumes from the RICS it is a fair guess that sales volumes will be similar in the coming months to those following the beginning of the long recovery back from the 2007 Crash. The estimates in the HMRC figures are modelled and far to low, the revised figures for the second part of 2022 show how large the revisions can be in extraordinary times and the Change in atmosphere from before the summer break in 2022 and afterwards, particularly after the Kamakwasi event in September, which saw the British Homeowner "Trussed up " like an Oven Ready turkey ready for basting in the  Kitchens of of Global Finance capital. Further and faster rate hikes had already begun in the states and I blogged about the dangerous Curves ahead at the time, and since then "SVB". 
If the First Quarter of 2023 has sales volumes at  a similar volume to 2013 , that would be consistent with the Last quarters Mortgage approvals figures and the RICS agreed transactions figures, the sample size for the RICS survey is quite low at 284 responses covering 494 branches but I consider it to be more statistically significant than the HMRC model.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cl2M4UzCuJzpKPPseqssWhOGUGcXd9B4/view?usp=share_link

DECEMBER 18, 2022

What next for the money power Part Two, the Denoument. Dangerous Curves Ahead https://t.co/jUWTDCqXvf via @ThemesDNA

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

JANUARY 31, 2023

Mortgage Market Heavy Breaking Applied. Avoid Dangerous Curves Ahead https://t.co/aedPnLRc2c via @ThemesDNA

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

MARCH 2, 2023

Mark to Market, The Liars Lexicon #GFC2 #LiarsLexicon #MarktoMarket #SHitHitsFan https://t.co/WOHx52Z1He via @ThemesDNA

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

MARCH 3, 2023

The Everything Bubble and the Everything Bust. Prospects for UK Housing and UK Housing Markets. https://t.co/arWhve6Bcv via @ThemesDNA

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

Over the past 3 years we have developed an excellent business case for our Customer first Demand pull solution to building new affordable homes where they are needed. It is clear that the Financial infrastructure is not fitted out for solving the problem which is known as the "Housing Crisis".
The present Government has given up on the problem since the Sacking of Jenrick Its been mostly Gove calling the shots, which have been an assortments of evasions resulting in most issues being booted firmly and comprehensively into the Long Grass.
"Levelling Up"
Lots of Ups as in F#¤Ks up and plenty of Levelling, as in flattening . A meaningless slogan for a clueless Government , Pathetic!
​

On the week beginning 20th February, I agreed with my fellow Shareholders in Home@ix that we should withdraw from a major affordable residential development scheme. The deterioration in the Housing Market and Economy generally had become so bad that all routes to viability for the £30m plus first phase of the development had evaporated.

Wed, Feb 22

“My shareholders and I have decided to withdraw from the purchase of the site today as the Existing s.106 conditions alone are too onerous and the lapsed consent is unlikely to relieve the existing s.106 burden and will probably make it worse. The Cash contribution of £500k is also adding to the increasing unattractiveness of the site commercially for us.
We are expecting the Market to get considerably worse over the best part of this year due to the threat of higher interest rates and the already apparent fragility of the economy in general.”
A week later I reflected on the withdrawal coming after 3 years of establishing our Brand and unique approach to an occupier lead approach to establishing affordable communities.


 




​Feb 23, 2023, 11:39 AM (9 days ago)
Hi xxxxx
( Black Rock and Blackstone both have property funds in trouble at the moment, if they are in trouble the rest of us have no chance.)
All Agents will be facing tough times this year Market activity in Commercial is as badly impacted as in Residential. The figures I flagged at the very beginning of January analyzing the raw data between Boxing Day and New Year are only now being reported in the press, already towards the end of December there had been quite a lot of discreet layoffs in the large surveying firms, Its that rapid deterioration in the wider market that derailed the XXX deal.
The situation has actually got so bad that what was a good potential run-off area for the Housing Associations to take up the slack has actually seen many of them now hitting the buffers as well.
After 3 years of hard work, all I can do is trim our sails to meet what happens next, I don’t think its possible to even start thinking about developing a strategy until after Easter and figure out if things are continuing to get worse or beginning to stabilize at some level?
I will get my thoughts into some sort of order over the weekend.
Best
Rog

​
https://www.pragcap.com/has-housing-bottomed/
This analysis applies to the US but is applicable in part to the UK, not least that Bank of England rates follow fed rates and so do ECB rates.
If anything in the Uk with its much smaller market than the US has an exaggerated response along the lines described in the article.
We have yet to see the extent of the problems seen in the US, particularly in its new build sector in the UK so far, but I do think it will come.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/mortgage-purchase-applications-drop-to-the-lowest-level-since-may-of-1995


​“As long as the Fed sticks with a policy of higher-for-longer, housing will be very weak. And if housing is weak, GDP will be weak as well.
Nonetheless, it’s likely the Fed will stick with higher-for longer out of fears of stirring up inflation.”




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Tuesday 28th February Rog and Ranjan discuss #GFC2 #WatchingTheWheelsComeOff #WhoStoleTheSizzlefromMySausage https://t.co/KVpi8HdZUy via @ThemesDNA

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

https://notthegrubstreetjournal.com/2023/03/03/the-everything-bubble-and-the-everything-bust-prospects-for-uk-housing-and-uk-housing-markets/
MARCH 3, 2023
The UK Housing Market Is at Risk of a Deep Freeze
A stalemate between sellers and buyers is likely — until and unless desperation sets in. Error:
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UK’s Falling House Prices Create Winners and Losers
ByJohn Stepek
December 12, 2022 at 1:27 PM GMT+1

One relatively new segment of the UK housing market could prove to be its weakest link as asking prices start to fall. https://t.co/etml1LxfEw via @wealth

— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 24, 2023

I am not expecting to be seriously pursuing any deals this side of the summer, how things look at the end of summer 2023 is I think pretty uncertain, the outlook is too volatile and rates have remained too high for too long and all the damage from that is yet to feed through into the market, early symptoms are alarming. ( for volume levels, not necessarily prices, which will remain sticky going downwards unless Distressed sales kick in, I will be monitoring re-possession data very carefully.) The ONS figures for transaction volumes estimated for the last quarter of 2022 were way off beam ( That link is updated to Feb 2023 well into January the figures were still catching up with reality), the actual data will see substantial revisions to those estimates in both November ( See combined 1 doc attached) and December ( See combined Doc 64 attached) volumes declined by between 35% and 45% year on year. The Mortgage lending figures are similarly alarming as were all of the major housebuilders’ trading updates through January.
If mortgage rates or general interest rates rise further ( or remain at the current elevated levels ) there will be a rout rather than a correction, either way, I no longer foresee a soft landing unless there is a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, which I am sadly pessimistic about.)
FTSE 100: Redrow profits slip as housing market ‘finds new level’

#GoingDirect not the Home@ix Mindmap

https://webbrain.com/brainpage/brain/98FC8BC2-D290-31A1-0868-3987279717D8